Stock Exchange: How Can We Trade Geopolitical Risks?

Our Stock Exchange is all about trading. Each week we do the following:

  • Discuss an important issue for traders;
  • Highlight several technical trading methods – including current ideas;
  • Feature advice from top traders and writers; and,
  • Provide a few (minority) reactions from fundamental analysts.

We also have some fun. We welcome comments, links, and ideas to help us improve this resource for traders.

Review

Our last Stock Exchange took up the trend toward evidence-based trading. If you missed it, check back to see what evidence you should be using and how to acquire it. Dr. Brett has added another post and a valuable link on this topic.

This Week—How Can We Trade the Known Geopolitical Risks?

This important topic is in the headlines. The G20 meetings, the Trump/Putin session, and North Korea’s missile tests are all front-page news. What does it mean for traders?

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Should We Believe Greg Ip About Recessions?

Today Greg Ip opined that we should start worrying about a recession. He is the chief economics commentator for the WSJ. He held a similar position for the Economist, and he has written several books. As a journalist with an economics background, his mission is to understand the key economic concepts and help his readers to understand.

It is something like what I do, except that he has a much larger audience! I also must manage portfolios and my business, so writing is a sideline – albeit one which I love.

I read Mr. Ip’s work regularly and normally find it to be informed and helpful. That is why his column today was so disturbing. It was almost as if someone else had taken over his word processor.

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Weighing the Week Ahead: How Strong is the Labor Market?

A holiday-interrupted week is loaded with important economic data. Since many market participants will skip Monday to stretch their weekend, the action will focus on Friday’s employment situation report. People will be asking:

Just how strong is the labor market?

Last Week Recap

The big economic news last week was the (slight) increase in volatility. Tuesday’s decline was attributed to the ACA repeal/replace delay and what it implied for the Trump agenda. That was forgotten by Wednesday. Thursday saw technology selling right at the opening. Art Cashin attributed the rotational decline to dueling programs. That had little carry over to Friday.

Our question from two weeks ago – a possible change in market leadership – got some real attention. Financial stocks did well in the wake of the bank stress test results.

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