Recession Odds

Market watchers are all interested in the odds of a recession.  You will not get an accurate view from stories making a big splash.  Since an economist is unlikely to be newsworthy by predicting a 10% chance, it is not surprising that Barry Ritholtz’s citations of recession odds predictions ranges from 30% to 70%.  (Roubini is getting a lot of publicity for his extreme viewpoint.)  Unless a reader of these stories has also read the Wall Street Journal economist poll, the impression will be misleading.

Enjoy Barry’s links (and thanks to him for the work even while in Denver).  Then take a look at our comments on the WSJ recession odds.

Link: Rocky Mountain Linkfest!.

Another week, another collection of mayhem: From the Fed pause to the not-so-friendly skys, indices lost between 1-1.5% this week, as investors digested lots of news this week. Surprisingly, the airports were not nearly as problematic as you might have …

Continue reading “Recession Odds”

Recession Odds

Market watchers are all interested in the odds of a recession.  You will not get an accurate view from stories making a big splash.  Since an economist is unlikely to be newsworthy by predicting a 10% chance, it is not surprising that Barry Ritholtz’s citations of recession odds predictions ranges from 30% to 70%.  (Roubini is getting a lot of publicity for his extreme viewpoint.)  Unless a reader of these stories has also read the Wall Street Journal economist poll, the impression will be misleading.

Enjoy Barry’s links (and thanks to him for the work even while in Denver).  Then take a look at our comments on the WSJ recession odds.

Link: Rocky Mountain Linkfest!.

Another week, another collection of mayhem: From the Fed pause to the not-so-friendly skys, indices lost between 1-1.5% this week, as investors digested lots of news this week. Surprisingly, the airports were not nearly as problematic as you might have …

Continue reading “Recession Odds”