Stock Exchange: Do Your Trades Fit Your Style?

The Stock Exchange is all about trading. Each week we do the following:

  • Discuss an important issue for traders;
  • Highlight several technical trading methods, including current ideas;
  • Feature advice from top traders and writers; and,
  • Provide a few (minority) reactions from fundamental analysts.

We also have some fun. We welcome comments, links, and ideas to help us improve this resource for traders. If you have some ideas, please join in!

Review

Our previous Stock Exchange considered the pitfalls of trying to win every trade. If you missed it, a glance at your news will show that the key points remain relevant.

This Week – Do Your Trades Fit Your Style?

Like months to a flame, traders often try to copycat whomever has the hottest hand. Unfortunately, this often ends badly because the trades don’t necessarily fit each individual’s style. For example, when developing our trading systems, our early models were often viewed as “suggestions” by the traders using them. However, we quickly learned that providing a momentum model to a “buy the rips, sell the dips” trader simply does not work.

According to Michael Martin, the author of “The Inner Voice of Trading,” traders should “befriend [their] emotions and make them allies not antagonists.” One reason for this “Stock Exchange” series is to illustrate different approaches and styles via our different models.

When implementing our models in practice, we don’t force trades when there are none. Similarly, we rarely skip trades—and only when there is some exceptional news that the model would not recognize. For example, when there is a buyout offer for a company we do not buy the target and we take it out of our universe. We know that the risk reward is poor, but the model would not.

Expert Picks from the Models

This week’s Stock Exchange is being edited by our frequent guest: Blue Harbinger (also known as Mark D. Hines). Blue Harbinger is a source for independent investment ideas focused on value and income opportunities.

Holmes: This week I bought American Airlines (AAL). This stock’s dip over the last month is the sort of set up I like to see. From the chart below you can see it is below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. However, it has attractive upside over the next six weeks.

Blue Harbinger: As a contrarian and a value investor, I actually like your buying style, Holmes. I’d much prefer to buy something when the stock price has just pulled back. However, I also like to dig deep into the details. Have you considered that American Airlines doesn’t hedge its fuel costs, and it has racked up a fairly high amount of debt in order to maintain its relatively young aircraft fleet?

Holmes: I’m typically in and out of my trades in about six weeks, and that timeframe is fairly insignificant to the age of the fleet. Also, it seems like a smart move not to hedge the fuel costs considering oil prices continue to be much lower than they were three years ago. And unless there is some extreme shock in the markets, I suspect energy prices won’t move too dramatically during the time period I hold the shares.

BH: So if you’re planning to hold this position for only about six weeks, what exactly is it that you like about American Airlines?

Holmes: My style is based on dip buying and mean reversion, and this stock is setting up nicely for a rebound in the coming weeks.

BH: I like dip buying and mean reversion too, but I like to hold on to my positions for much longer than six weeks.

Holmes: Interesting, however there is simply too much opportunity to profit more significantly over shorter time periods. Your longer-term strategy seems boring, and it simply does not fit my style.

RoadRunner: There is more than one way to skin a cat, Holmes. I can appreciate your typical six-week holding period, considering mine is usually around four-weeks. However, your mean reversion strategy doesn’t exactly fit with my style. I like to buy stocks that are at the bottom of a rising channel, and if you look at the chart below you can see why I like Activision Blizzard (ATVI) this week.

BH: The rising channel makes sense considering Activision Blizzard beat its own earnings guidance in Q2, and it provided full year guidance that exceeded consensus estimates. Also, as the following grahic shows, the company has been focusing on building strong franchises for its video games. If you recall, we covered the importance of franchise value previously (Stock Exchange: How Durable Is Your Franchise?).

RR: I appreciate your efforts to dig into the company’s franchise value, however that’s more of a long-term thing, and I don’t suspect it’ll materially impact the price over the next four weeks. However, I do suspect it will rise back up to the top of the channel, but it’ll only hold that position for so long. How about you Athena and Felix, what do you like this week?

Athena: I don’t have any trades this week, and I’m not going to force anything.

Felix: Same here. No trades stood out for me this week, and I’m not going to force anything either. However, for your reference, here is a look at my rankings this week.

BH: Thanks Athena and Felix. How about you, Oscar, what have you got?

Oscar: I have an interesting one for you guys. This week I like IBUY, the Online Retailer ETF.

BH: That is interesting considering the “death of retail” narrative that been reverberating across the market. Some investors believe all “brick and mortar” retail stores are going to get “Amazonned.”

I looked through this ETF’s holdings, and it’s diversified across a lot of the online retail names that you’d expect (Like Amazon) as well as a few interesting surprises.

Oscar: I like IBUY because it has a lot of momentum (as shown in the chart below). My typical holding period is also about six weeks, my exit strategy is to rotate into a new sector, and I control my risk with stops.

BH: Personally, I think the death of retail narrative is a little overblown, but that probably doesn’t matter much since you usually only hold for a little over a month. Have you considered this ETF’s expense ratio (0.65%) and the fact that it still has just under $100 million in total assets?

Oscar: I’m comfortable with both of those (expense ratio and asset under management). Plus, I’ll be in and out of this trade within six-weeks.

Conclusion

One of the common reasons why many traders like model-driven investing is because it’s supposed to take the irrational emotions out of trading. However, if the person managing the model has the ability to override it, then emotion becomes an ongoing challenge.

One way to prevent emotions from antagonizing your trades is to select a trading approach that fits your emotions. Our models all have different personalities, and we’ve learned the importance of using a model that fits the personality of the person running it. By selecting a trading approach that fits your emotional style, your chances of error are reduced, and your chances for success go up.

Stock Exchange Character Guide

 

Background on the Stock Exchange

Each week, Felix and Oscar host a poker game for some of their friends. Since they are all traders, they love to discuss their best current ideas before the game starts. They like to call this their “Stock Exchange.” (Check it out http://dashofinsight.com/background-stock-exchange/  for more background). Their methods are excellent, as you know if you have been following the series. Since the time frames and risk profiles differ, so do the stock ideas. You get to be a fly on the wall from my report. I am usually the only human present and the only one using any fundamental analysis.

The result? Several expert ideas each week from traders, and a brief comment on the fundamentals from the human investor. The models are named to make it easy to remember their trading personalities.

Getting Updates

We have a (free) service for subscribers of our Felix/Oscar update list. You can suggest three favorite stocks and sectors. Sign up with email to “etf at newarc dot com”. We keep a running list of all securities our readers recommend. The “favorite fifteen” are top ranking positions according to each respective model. Within that list, green is a “buy,” yellow a “hold,” and red a “sell.” Suggestions and comments are welcome. Please remember that these are responses to reader requests, not necessarily stocks and sectors that we own. Sign up now to vote your favorite stock or sector onto the list!

Weighing the Week Ahead: Have the Odds Improved for a Market-Friendly Policy Agenda?

We have a normal data calendar. Central to stock market prospects is the resolution of several key policy issues. The possible outcomes have a wide range of market impacts, from fear to a major boost in corporate earnings. The debt limit/Harvey aid deal between President Trump and Democrats was a surprise to most. Still digesting the implications, the punditry will be wondering:

Have the odds improved for a market-friendly policy agenda?

Last Week Recap

My expectation that of a focus on what might go wrong was partly correct. Then the hurricane news and political reactions became the lead stories. There was little market-moving data.

The Story in One Chart

I always start my personal review of the week by looking at this great chart from Doug Short via Jill Mislinski. The most notable feature is the narrow range. The supposed “delayed reaction” to the N. Korean H-bomb story was responsible for the Tuesday dip.

Doug has a special knack for pulling together all the relevant information. His charts save more than a thousand words! Read the entire post for several more charts providing long-term perspective, including the size and frequency of drawdowns.

 

The Silver Bullet

As I indicated recently I am moving the Silver Bullet award to a standalone feature, rather than an item in WTWA. I hope that readers and past winners, listed here, will help me in giving special recognition to those who help to keep data honest. As always, nominations are welcome!

The News

Each week I break down events into good and bad. For our purposes, “good” has two components. The news must be market friendly and better than expectations. I avoid using my personal preferences in evaluating news – and you should, too!

There was little economic news, but it was generally positive. The negatives were not very significant.

The Good

  • Wholesale inventories increased 0.6% more than the expected gain of 0.4%. This is a positive for GDP, assuming that inventory restocking is needed.
  • China economic growth looks better, if one believes in Dr. Copper.
  • Non-farm productivity increased 1.5% compared to 0.9% last month.
  • Debt ceiling deal avoids a government shutdown, so it is basically market-friendly. The full story is more complicated.
  • ISM non-manufacturing recorded 55.3, up from 53.9 in July, and in line with most expectations. (Bespoke)

  • Job gains better than thought. The preliminary benchmark revision shows that the net job gains for the year ending in March was 95,000 more than expected. This report is important as a check on the aggressive spinning done on every “employment Friday.” (BLS)
  • Overall global growth continues. Dr. Ed Yardeni has a good analysis with some interesting charts and explanations. Here is a key quote and a chart example.

    The global economy is running on all six cylinders. It may not be a global synchronized boom, but it is the most synchronized expansion of economic activity that the global economy has had since the recovery from the 2008/2009 recession.

The Bad

  • Harvey could imply more mortgage delinquencies. There could be as many as 300K new delinquencies and 160K more that are past due. (Calculated Risk)
  • Factory orders declined 3.3% versus last month’s gain of 3.0%. A decline of 3.2% was expected.
  • Jobless claims spiked. This was the expected Harvey effect. Jill Mislinski’s chart shows the effect clearly.


 

The Ugly

Irma. Not just another hurricane. The entire state of Florida in the path. Modern modeling and forecasting has helped in evacuating seven million people. One way of measuring the magnitude is the accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), the total wind energy of the tropical system. USA Today has these amazing comparisons:

Irma generated the most ACE (44.2 units) by a tropical cyclone on record in the tropical Atlantic and also the most in a 24-hour period on record, breaking the old record set by Allen (1980).

It also generated more ACE than the first eight named storms of this Atlantic hurricane season (Arlene-Harvey) combined.

Harvey. FiveThirtyEight puts the extent of the damage in perspective.


Equifax. Not only was the confidential information of 143 million people exposed, but the notification was not made for more than a month. Meanwhile, three top executives sold stock before the announcement. Here is a discussion of what might happen and what you can do. There oughta be a law…..but there really isn’t.

Noteworthy

America’s most important trading partners.


 

The Week Ahead

We would all like to know the direction of the market in advance. Good luck with that! Second best is planning what to look for and how to react.

The Calendar

We have a normal economic calendar. Most important is retail sales (August). The only July data of real interest is the JOLTS report, which the Fed uses to analyze tightness in the labor market.

Briefing.com has a good U.S. economic calendar for the week (and many other good features which I monitor each day). Here are the main U.S. releases.


Next Week’s Theme

Only three weeks ago we were wondering whether a market-friendly policy agenda was in peril. Things can change quickly in the current political climate. The deal between President Trump and the Democrats came late in the week. Avoiding a US credit downgrade is a big threat. A government shutdown would also be a market negative. By contrast, tax reform could provide a major boost, perhaps as much as 8% in expected S&P 500 earnings.

Most of what you see or read on this story will be highly political, perhaps with a soap opera quality. That is not our purpose! Buried beneath the popular discussions is a serious question for investors:

Have the odds improved for a market-friendly policy agenda?

It is early in the discussion, but here are the key viewpoints:

  1. This was an impulsive decision – a reaction to lack of GOP help on his agenda. (The Hill)
  2. The decision has no implications for future bipartisanship. The House vote was 316-90, but all of the Nay votes were Republicans.
  3. The decision just postpones the key issues. Nothing has been solved.
  4. While the circumstances were unusual, it does show that bipartisan action is possible when needed.

As usual, I’ll have more in my Final Thought, emphasizing my own conclusions.

Quant Corner

We follow some regular featured sources and the best other quant news from the week.

Risk Analysis

I have a rule for my investment clients. Think first about your risk. Only then should you consider possible rewards. I monitor many quantitative reports and highlight the best methods in this weekly update.

The Indicator Snapshot


 

Notes on changes:

We have added a distinction between the technical appeal of the market on a short-term (two months or so) and a long-term basis. The mildly bearish interpretation does not imply a full exit from trading. It is a warning that conditions are not as attractive.

The nine-month recession probabilty from the C-Score has moved from <10% to <15%.

The Featured Sources:

 

Bob Dieli: Business cycle analysis via the “C Score.

RecessionAlert: Strong quantitative indicators for both economic and market analysis.

Brian Gilmartin: All things earnings, for the overall market as well as many individual companies.

Georg Vrba: Business cycle indicator and market timing tools. It is a good time to show the chart with the business cycle indicator.

Doug Short: Regular updating of an array of indicators. Great charts and analysis.

 

Guest Sources

New Deal Democrat raises some concern about what he groups as “consumer long-leading indicators.” He notes that several of these are somewhat off their peaks – something to watch.

Mark Hulbert observes that the widely-followed Shiller CAPE indicator is about to turn less bearish. It will not require any decrease in market price nor an increase in earnings. The earnings decline from the Great Recession is about to drop out of the calculation. Most people do not understand exactly how this measure is determined, so this will be a surprise as the CAPE ratio declines by 10% over two years.

Scott Grannis also notes (A Better PE Ratio) that other valuation models show a very different picture.

 

Insight for Traders

We have not quit our discussion of trading ideas. The weekly Stock Exchange column is bigger and better than ever. We combine links to trading articles, topical themes, and ideas from our trading models. This week’s post covered the danger in trying to win every trade. Blue Harbinger has taken the lead role on this post, using information from me and from the models. He is doing a great job.

Insight for Investors

Investors should have a long-term horizon. They can often exploit trading volatility!

Best of the Week

If I had to pick a single most important source for investors to read this week it would be this post from Farnam Street: The Difference Between Amateurs and Professionals. The estimated reading time is two minutes, but I recommend that you linger a bit. Nearly every point is worth pondering. The summary captures the basic idea:

There are a host of other differences, but they can effectively be boiled down to two things: fear and reality.

Amateurs believe that the world should work the way they want it to. Professionals realize that they have to work with the world as they find it. Amateurs are scared — scared to be vulnerable and honest with themselves. Professionals feel like they are capable of handling almost anything.

Luck aside, which approach do you think is going to yield better results?

 

This post is loaded with great ideas to help in analyzing your own investment process.

 

Stock Ideas

 

Our ideas this week have a focus on yield, although the methodology differs.

Chuck Carnevale once again combines an interesting stock idea –Smuckers (SJM) with a lesson on how to perform your own analysis. Of special interest is his discussion of dividends versus retained earnings. Consider that some companies pay dividends but do not diminish their power to grow and execute. Others believe that retaining capital assists growth.

Philip Van Doorn recommends a look at the worst performing of the dividend aristocrats. Check out his list, which includes a few names that we hold.

Simply Safe Dividends notes that Crown Castle (CCI) is the highest-yielding stock held by Bill Gates. I would not use that as my key selection criterion, but it is an interesting idea. He also recommends a look at Chubb (CB).

Contrarian tech stock picks from Lee Jackson’s screen. These are pretty aggressive.

Blue Harbinger has a first-rate analysis, comparing two popular REITs — Ventas (VTR) and Welltower (HCN).

 

Personal Finance

 

Seeking Alpha Senior Editor Gil Weinreich has an interesting topic every day. His own commentary adds insight and ties together key current articles. This week, among several good posts, he has one that shows special value both for advisors and investors. His theme is A Conservative Path to Retirement Investing and he highlights Adam Grossman’s solid and practical analysis of some key life decisions: Job changing, a big investment decision, or downsizing your home. What I especially like about Gil’s series is his interaction with readers. The post stimulated a lot of comments that were worth following up. He did so.

Abnormal Returns has a different topic each day. I read them all, but individual investors might find the Wednesday focus most relevant. There are always many great links, but the story about eliminating (or reducing) usage of your car is particularly interesting. There are also several great retirement stories.

Strategy

David Templeton (HORAN) looks at the trends and reversals in growth and value stocks. The analysis is interesting for those heavily invested in dividend stocks.

A solid investment perspective requires a sound foundation. That is what I do each week with our Indicator Snapshot. Some (including a nearby critic) have suggested that I might possibly, on occasion, be a little verbose. (Moi??) Here is a valuable alternative source.

Eddy Elfenbein has one of his typical market assessments – both clear and wise.

We’re constantly told that it’s a reckless bubble that’s all about to crash. Or it’s all due to manipulation from the Fed, and it’s all about to crash. Please. Predicting that the world is about to end is one of the favorite pastimes on Wall Street. Still, the bull marches on. In fact, this year may turn out to be the lowest year on record for the stock market’s volatility.

If there’s a golden rule for long-term investing, it’s that betting on disaster is always overpriced, and betting on “it’ll all work itself out” is always a bargain.

 

Watch out for….

 

Brian Gilmartin takes a careful look at Coach (COH) and the expected synergies from the Kate Spade (KATE) acquisition. This is a great example of how to use earnings in your stock analysis.

Dividend Sensei warns about Medical Properties Trust (MPW), preferring Omega Health Systems (OHI). So do we.

Final Thoughts

 

Has the political environment improved? Clearly it has. Important legislation was passed that many market participants thought unlikely just a few days ago. These same critics will now have two objections:

  1. The plan is short on specifics;
  2. It only delays the questions.

Those viewpoints demonstrate little understanding of the US political process. Compromise always takes more time than expected, is un-liked by everyone, and never begins with specifics.

The Trump/Democrat deal changes everything. No one knows for sure what the possible new alignments might be. We only know that they could not be worse than the gridlock we had.

 

What worries me…

  • The lack of progress on the North Korean situation and related issues with China. While I do not expect a shooting war, the topic of trade sanctions against North Korea’s partners is a danger. This requires careful monitoring.
  • Wasting the opportunity to shake up existing Washington alliances. Most of the needed policies require bipartisan cooperation between moderates.

…and what doesn’t

  • Market valuation. Some day there will be a reconsideration of the methods that have frightened so many for so long. A continuing focus on growth in earnings expectations has worked well.
  • A recession. We are more likely (finally) to have a stronger rebound rather than a recession.

Stock Exchange: Are You Trying To Win Every Trade?

The Stock Exchange is all about trading. Each week we do the following:

  • Discuss an important issue for traders;
  • Highlight several technical trading methods, including current ideas;
  • Feature advice from top traders and writers; and,
  • Provide a few (minority) reactions from fundamental analysts.

We also have some fun. We welcome comments, links, and ideas to help us improve this resource for traders. If you have some ideas, please join in!

Review

Our previous Stock Exchange considered a couple of the biggest causes of trading failure (hint: position sizing and psychology). If you missed it, a glance at your news will show that the key points remain relevant.

This Week – Are You Trying To Win Every Trade?

This week we build on last week’s theme by offering another cause of trading failure: perfectionism. Trying to win every trade is not only unrealistic, but it’ll drive you crazy. According to Dr. Brett Steenbarger:

“There is nothing constructive about perfectionism. It’s self-abusive; it doesn’t move us forward. It’s a dumping of anger, not an effort to learn from mistakes.”

In reality, you don’t need to win every trade. You don’t even need to win more than 50% of your trades, as long as your net gains are strong compared to net losses. This means having a process in place to deal with your losing trades. According to Irrational Investors:

“A strong investment process is easy to describe, challenging to implement, and rewarding when done well.”

For example, it’s easy to describe a process for dealing with losing trades, challenging to actually stick to that process, but it’s ultimately rewarding in the sense that it will help you achieve strong net gains, and it’ll help you avoid the psychological pitfalls of striving for perfection.

For reference, Nial Fuller explains why you need to learn to lose properly to win at trading. His article is targeted towards forex trading, but the lessons are applicable to a wide range of traders. According to Nial:

“Losing truly is part of winning, especially in trading. If you want to become a complete trader who truly knows how to trade properly, you must learn how to lose properly in addition to actually learning how to trade.”

All of the expert picks from our models are implemented with clear exit methods and risk controls in place, and a high-level description of those methods and controls is included in the table near the end of this report.

Expert Picks from the Models

This week’s Stock Exchange is being edited by our frequent guest: Blue Harbinger (also known as Mark D. Hines). Blue Harbinger is a source for independent investment ideas focused on value and income opportunities.

Holmes: This week I bought Helmerich & Payne (HP). This stock’s dip over the last month is the sort of set up I like to see. From the chart below you can see it is well below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. However, it has attractive upside over the next six weeks.

Blue Harbinger: Attractive upside? This company drills oil and gas wells for other companies, and business has not been good. Helmerich & Payne’s net income has been negative for the last five quarters.

Holmes: I’m not thinking in terms of quarters. I’m typically in and out of my trades in about six weeks, and Helmerich & Payne isn’t expected to announce quarterly earnings again until November.

BH: So then what exactly is it that you do like about this company?

Holmes: My style is based on dip buying and mean reversion, and this stock is setting up nicely for a rebound in the coming weeks.

BH: And if the stock continues to move lower? Then what will you do?

Holmes: I have a disciplined sell-process in place. I’ll exit when my price target is achieved, and if the price moves against me then my stops will kick in. I don’t have to win all of my trades, I just want the net gains on my winners to be strong.

BH: Interesting Holmes. How about you RoadRunner? What do you have for us this week, and do you also have a process that focusses on net gains?

RoadRunner: This week I purchased Electronic Arts (EA). And yes of course I have a process in place. I essentially use “time” as my exit method and risk control.

BH: Is there a particular reason you bought Electronic Arts? Because I seem to recall you bought Electronic Arts back on August 4th as well.

RR: I look for stocks that are at the bottom of a rising trading channel and if you look at the chart below you can see why I like Electronic Arts. It’s been in a steady rising channel since before July and has just pulled back in the channel to $118.75. I expect the price of EA to rise back to the top of the channel, but it will only hold that position for so long.

BH: Well, you’ve told me in the past that you hold your positions for four weeks, and if you held EA for four weeks after you bought it back during the first week of August then you probably did pretty well for yourself.

RR: I don’t like to brag. But yes. And if you notice, the shares have pulled back again, and I’ve initiated a new position. And since we’re talking about my previous picks, did you notice my RH (RH) pick from two weeks ago?

BH: Nice job on RH, RoadRunner!

RR: Thanks.

BH: And as long as EA keeps churning out new releases of its highly sought-after video games (e.g. Madden, NBA Live), I suspect it’ll continue to be just fine. How about you Felix, what have you got this week?

Felix: I don’t have any specific picks for you this week. But for your reference, here is my list of rankings. And just so you know, my average holding period of 66-weeks is quite a bit longer than the rest of the group.

BH: Thanks Felix. Oscar, what have you got?

Oscar: Here is my list (below), and this week SOXX looks interesting.

BH: Thanks for the list, and I agree SOXX is interesting. This is the iShares semiconductor ETF, and I really like a lot of the specific semiconductor names held within this strategy. I suspect there will be a ton of volatility, but over the long-term, as the uses of semiconductors continue to grow (e.g. more semiconductors in smart phones, smart cars and even in datacenters) this fund will be a winner.

Oscar: I don’t like to hold things for the “long-term.” My process is to invest in attractive sectors based on momentum, and I’m usually in and out in about six-weeks. And when you say you like a lot of the specific semiconductor names, that just seems too risky to me. That’s why I go with the ETF basket of stocks—less risk. And just so you know, I also manage risks by using stops to limit my losses. I know I cannot win all of these trades, so I try to minimize my losses so my overall net gains remain strong.

Conclusion

Trying to win 100% of your trades is not realistic. And worse, pursuing this goal can cause a lot of unnecessary frustration that can detract from (and even prevent) your overall success. Rather than trying to win on every trade, investors that have a process in place to minimize losses are often more successful. Because at the end of the day, it’s not your winning percentage that matters, it’s your net gains.

Stock Exchange Character Guide

Background on the Stock Exchange

Each week, Felix and Oscar host a poker game for some of their friends. Since they are all traders, they love to discuss their best current ideas before the game starts. They like to call this their “Stock Exchange.” (Check it out http://dashofinsight.com/background-stock-exchange/  for more background). Their methods are excellent, as you know if you have been following the series. Since the time frames and risk profiles differ, so do the stock ideas. You get to be a fly on the wall from my report. I am usually the only human present and the only one using any fundamental analysis.

The result? Several expert ideas each week from traders, and a brief comment on the fundamentals from the human investor. The models are named to make it easy to remember their trading personalities.

Getting Updates

We have a (free) service for subscribers of our Felix/Oscar update list. You can suggest three favorite stocks and sectors. Sign up with email to “etf at newarc dot com”. We keep a running list of all securities our readers recommend. The “favorite fifteen” are top ranking positions according to each respective model. Within that list, green is a “buy,” yellow a “hold,” and red a “sell.” Suggestions and comments are welcome. Please remember that these are responses to reader requests, not necessarily stocks and sectors that we own. Sign up now to vote your favorite stock or sector onto the list!