Hussman: Fed Action Won’t Boost Stocks

The problem with the comparisons John makes is that all of his "price/peak earnings" periods are not equal.  A valuation approach that completely omits interest rates leaves out the biggest asset allocation comparison faced by both managers and individuals.  Here’s the story, then I’ll elaborate. Link: Hussman: Fed Action Won’t Boost Stocks. Excerpt from John […]

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Yield Curve — an Indicator, not a Cause

Understanding the causal relationship is crucial in using any indicator.  Lacy Hunt says that reducing M2 growth will slow the economy, but what does this have to do with the slope of the curve?  Meanwhile, there was a lot of economic and media commentary today citing the same arguments I made yesterday.  I’ll summarize below, […]

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Some Strong Support for Barry from Studies

There is very strong support for the yield curve association, and I’ll link to some sources below.  Barry’s analysis is more carefully qualified than that of most of the talking heads on CNBC.  Until now, I have always believed in the yield curve as an indicator, and I well know the peril in asking whether […]

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More Overreaction in Energy Stocks

The higher volatility in these stocks makes no sense, but it comes with the territory.  Here’s the story, and I’ll explain more below. Link: Energy ETFs Leak Oil. Bloomberg reports that Crude oil fell on expectations that milder temperatures in the U.S. will help preserve stockpiles of winter heating fuels that are above average levels. […]

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