The Effect of Complexity

Adding complexity to a story adds "spin potential."  It is great for media and pundits.  It is a disaster for investors. [Warning:  I am writing this under duress.  I am supposed to be on vacation.  Since we are at the five-year anniversary for "A Dash" there might be some updates or historical posts from my […]

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Biggest Investor Mistakes

Many studies have shown that individual investors, managing their own accounts, do about 5% worse than they would if simply buying an index fund.  The top investment managers have regularly beaten the averages, so it is a big spread. The current environment illustrates all of the key reasons for this. Psychology.  Investors buy tops and […]

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Revisiting the List of Worries

James Altucher suggests that the S&P 500 is going to 1500, an increase of over 40%.  He provides seven good reasons.  He notes that stocks are trading at 11 times forward earnings.  Average would be 15 or more, and the current low interest rates suggest an even higher multiple might be appropriate.  I view valuation […]

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Reviewing John Mauldin on Employment and the Economy

A thoughtful reader, considering my article yesterday where I took up the faulty analysis of subgroups in employment data, asked me about a recent newsletter from John Mauldin. John Mauldin writes a weekly newsletter with over one million subscribers.  From his accounts, he is an influential jet-setter who knows everyone important and provides the inside […]

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