Understanding the Employment Issue

Nearly everyone will agree that improving employment is crucial for economic growth.  Understanding the various employment indicators is important for any investor who is interested in fundamental analysis.  I write a monthly employment preview where I highlight forecasts using several different methods, including one developed by my team.  Here is a good recent example. In […]

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Art Laffer and the Triumph of Politics

Presentation is everything. An excellent idea, poorly presented, is a failure.  A simple concept may sizzle, even if there are flaws. Take the Laffer Curve.  Famously drawn on a napkin, Laffer suggested that a tax rate of zero raised no revenue, a tax rate of 100% raised no revenue, and there must be something in […]

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Weighing the Week Ahead: Mounting Worries

Market psychology and sentiment — already terrible — got even worse last week. Those trading on a near-term time frame must always respect the tape.  For traders, the story is a bit confused.  The short term trend is terrible, but the trading range is holding.  For long-term investors it is more a question of fundamentals […]

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