Headline Spin — Recession Forecasting is Back!

Investors have learned from both data and personal experience that business cycle peaks (popularly known as recessions) are associated with the most important stock declines. It is natural that any news about a possible recession gets extra attention. There are so many sentiment measures – surveys of different populations, including non-investors – that it is […]

Read More

The Quest for Investing Excellence and the Lesson of Dow 20K

The new movement to passive investments is a sharp break from the historical quest for excellence. Many articles claim that no one can do better than the market average. If that is true, you should just throw out your investment library and skip the popular lists of “best investment books.” This post will suggest a […]

Read More

Weighing the Week Ahead: When Will the Trading Range Be Broken?

We have normal week for economic data, including the first estimate for Q3 GDP. There are also important earnings reports. Election stories have become even more intense. Meanwhile, the market has been pretty quiet. I expect financial media to be asking: When will the trading range be broken? Personal Notes I will be traveling next […]

Read More

Weighing the Week Ahead: Earnings Recession Ending Next Quarter?

This week’s calendar includes a little data, a lot of politics, slow summer trading, and the last of the earnings reports. I expect financial media to focus on an earnings season post-mortem by asking: Has the Earnings Recession Reached a Turning Point? Last Week The important economic news was excellent, and the market reaction was […]

Read More

Weighing the Week Ahead: What is the Risk/Reward for Stocks?

This week’s economic calendar is loaded, and packed into a holiday-shortened week. There will also be plenty of FedSpeak, encouraging the favorite game of not just reporting data, but wondering how the Fed will see it. When it comes time to put it all together, pundits will be asking: What is the risk/reward tradeoff for […]

Read More
Page 1 of 1912345...10...Last »