Don’t Fret the Inverted Yield Curve

For those interested in the complete text of the David Malpass report I mentioned yesterday, you can find it here, along with a lot of other good reading in the section on markets. Link: Don’t Fret the Inverted Yield Curve. David is one of the world’s best economists. Following by David Malpass, Cheif Economist, Bear […]

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Dr. John Rutledge on the Inverted Yield Curve

John Rutledge’s experience combines a strong academic background and front-line investment experience.  His writing is authoritative and persuasive.  If you missed him on CNBC, you can read his explanation here.  My readers will find both the argument and the implications for stocks to be familiar.  The explanation of the need to understand "why" is especially […]

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Hussman: Fed Action Won’t Boost Stocks

The problem with the comparisons John makes is that all of his "price/peak earnings" periods are not equal.  A valuation approach that completely omits interest rates leaves out the biggest asset allocation comparison faced by both managers and individuals.  Here’s the story, then I’ll elaborate. Link: Hussman: Fed Action Won’t Boost Stocks. Excerpt from John […]

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Yield Curve — an Indicator, not a Cause

Understanding the causal relationship is crucial in using any indicator.  Lacy Hunt says that reducing M2 growth will slow the economy, but what does this have to do with the slope of the curve?  Meanwhile, there was a lot of economic and media commentary today citing the same arguments I made yesterday.  I’ll summarize below, […]

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