Silver Target Review – WTWA 06/02/18

In last week’s installment of WTWA I invited readers to comment on a chart, with the comment that I did not like it. Here it is:


 

Several readers made excellent comments, including some via email. The readers (fujilomi, Mark Tully, Total Return Investor, and Lloyd Clucas) covered the key points, which I will summarize here.

  1. Adjusting for inflation (with an unknown measure) is not an apples-to-apples comparison. If you did not invest at all, for example, inflation would leave you behind. There is a need for some comparison.
  2. What about dividends?
  3. As is often the case, a vertical log scale is called for to assist in comparisons in different eras.
  4. And finally, the message is a warning not to buy at market tops. If you look at the green lines in 1999 and now, you could guess a top at any point.

The result: A scary message for the average reader – those less sophisticated than the WTWA audience!

 

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